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Thanks for sharing your view. It sounds like you speak on behalf of the market consensus. Kind regards Paul H 05 Dec at 6: More so since you are also bearish on rates?
Mitchell Fraser-Jones Moderator 06 Dec at 1: I think it does justify a degree of valuation stretch but the extent of that stretch is now extreme, as the chart demonstrates. I expect a similar logic was present in the mid-late s when the nifty-fifty bubble was beginning to inflate — and it ended badly.
Furthermore, if the sources of future growth turn out to be not quite as reliable as the market consensus appears to be suggesting for example, slower growth in China and a better growth outcome for the UKthen the extent of the valuation stretch looks even more unsustainable and dangerous.
Thanks Justin Davis 05 Dec at 6: The key difference being interest rates in the developed world. So long as they persist at such infinitesimal levels — which appears to be a no-brainier for the foreseeable future and probably well beyond, any investor worth his or her salt has to adjust their stock picking accordingly.
There are still outstanding long term equity publicly traded opportunities, albeit the catalysts are more subtle.
Purplebricks, one of your core holdings, updates the market this week. Maybe that will give NW a much needed shot in the arm. There are differences in the environment now, interest rates being one of them, but there are similarities.
Hence the Mark Twain quote — this is a rhyme, not a repeat. Kind regards Rob Vale 05 Dec at 6: You can decide to pick stocks, or you can decide to pick a fund manager. I prefer the latter, but based on a track record covering many years. As for me, I will continue to make decisions on which fund managers I invest in over the longer term.
Good points, well made, Rob. Mitch Brian 05 Dec at 6: On top of this there government intervention in markets, especially the housing market in the UK, which is propped up and therefore artificial by the likes of help to buy and the funding for lending scheme where banks and building societies can borrow for next to nothing.
No wonder they do not want deposits from the general public. This will end in tears at some point and you will not want the house builders in your portfolio then.
Even if gearing is low this time around, their land banks will fall in value and so will the share price. Also does the team not think that all the computers doing the trading nowadays perpetuates momentum investing and leaving value behind?
Will this ever be corrected? Mitchell Fraser-Jones Moderator 06 Dec at 2: QE has led to a substantial misallocation of capital and it has inflated asset prices all over the place. But we do not think that the UK property market has been one of them — at least, not nationwide.
But we do not believe that widespread over-valuation is one of them. But we do not believe it is an enduring influence or a sustainable one.
Indeed, history suggests that when the trends stop working, the unwind can be very swift and, in places, painful. Kind regards Sean Watson 05 Dec at 7: I have been saying for years there are some valuations out there which just boggle the mind.
In terms of cheap domestics stocks, look at Virgin Money or MJ Gleeson for example and tell me how they are so cheap?
There is clearly a massive imbalance going on which cant continue. He also coind another quote i cant exactly remember off the top of my head, something about the old tried and tested companies always come back into fasion again at somepoint. Anyhuw, im pleased you have gone public with your thoughts Neil, it has given me comfort.How To Write a Feature Story Popular content of print, electronic and Internet media What Are Feature Stories?
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